The chief virologist of the Charité considers it possible that, in Germany, in the long term, a quarter of a million people on the Coronavirus will die. Andreas alleys of the Fund ärtztlichen Federal Association of an “infestation” of the company. Threat the was not however.
The Virus will not spread further, if two out of three people are at least temporarily immune, because you had the infection already, said Christian Drosten, Director of the Institute for Virology of the Charité, in an Interview with the "Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung".
"Out of a total population of 83 million, two-thirds would be almost 56 million people would infect, to stop the spread. With a mortality of 0.5 percent of the deaths would be in the case of 278,000 Corona to rechnen", said Drosten.
Such a calculation do, however, "little Sinn", because of the missing component, said Drosten more. "At slow spreading Corona will disappear-victims in the normal death rate." Each year would die in Germany, 850,000 people. The age profile was similar to that of the deaths from the new Virus.
With all of the available vaccine against the Coronavirus Dorsten " expects;not before the summer of next Jahres".
"This may seem shocking, but Bedrohliches" nothing;
Also doctor’s President Andreas streets assumes that a majority of the population is infected, before the spread comes to a real Stop.
"This may seem to the layman shocking, but it is a matter of fact there is nothing Threatening: There are viruses that infect virtually every at least once. For example, Herpes and Influenza", the Chairman of the Board of the cash-medical Federal Union (KBV) said the "NOZ". You speak in the case of a "Durchseuchung" the company, which would then lead ultimately to a kind of herd immunity.
"Also, the Coronavirus is not likely to verschwinden", streets said. The question is, how long the "Durchseuchung" takes. "This may take four or five years. The faster it goes, the greater the challenge for the health care is. But that we, even in the case of a further rapid increase in the cases of borders, I do not see definitely." Currently, Corona is "more of a media than a medically relevant Infektion", streets said.
Drosten: "Major events should werden" cancelled;
Virologist Drosten called for the containment of the Virus, a ban on large-scale events with more than 1000 participants. "The Swiss say all events with more than 1000 people. Such a binding upper limit would be for Germany extremely hilfreich", this would also give the organisers the right to safety, the researchers said. "Full stadiums with tens of thousands of Fans – particularly in areas such as the Coronavirus, now greatly concerned, Rheinland – would have to from a medical point of view, actually werden" stopped;, warned Drosten.
For nationwide school closures, the time is not come, from the point of view of the Charité-experts: "The idea is a good one. But this is a measure which we the company expect können", the virologist. "We should keep this map, so we can pull in the fall, or in June, when the Virus is not 'Sommerpause' brought. Now it would probably be too early."
Drosten fears that a rapid spread in Germany could not be prevented. "We are reaching our limits. The concern is not eligible, that we get the Coronavirus in the handle and at the start of a pandemic wave stehen", he said. The position is for the health departments in some places is very difficult.
"We get feedback that the staff surrender. You no longer have the personnel capable of carrying out all necessary checks. Contact persons are not tested the same. In the case of people in quarantine is not checked whether they really should stay home. The health boards no longer keep up."
It is there are still uncertainties surrounding
Recently, Christian Drosten had filed at the Federal press conference the current state of research in Germany. You do not know the Virus well enough, said of the virologist of the Charité. And, therefore, could change estimates also in a short time. Especially important is three things be used for the assessment of a disease:
- Case mortality
- Speed of propagation
- Duration of a possible pandemic/epidemic
Reader tip: Top virologist: "Germany needs two weeks Corona Ferien"
Case mortality in Corona
This deck is currently between 0.3 and 0.7 percent, says Drosten, of the other bills is contrary to that of more than two per cent going out.
"Social media is made for this purpose, a lot of Drama. And there are also many efforts to make Drama." For example, there are now companies that wanted to Profit from the Figures, and specifically to the high mortality rates would scatter, so Drosten. "I don’t think it’s good, if you pay the case is not properly consider." Many would expect that new patients might die in two weeks, all is still and thus the Rate could significantly increase. But this is not a reputable method of calculation.
All of the current developments you will find in the News Ticker.
Speed of propagation
A key number for a pandemic or epidemic is, how fast the disease is spreading. This would have the "highest Informationswert", to be here but also on "most difficult to schätzen", so Drosten. The question is, how many people become infected with a sick person in contact. "The current Numbers are 5 to 10 Prozent", the virologist explains.
The sun under the Spread of Influenza pandemics – where to "not the seasonal Grippe" was meant to be. "There is, however, quite large uncertainties – which can ändern" also very coarse;, so Drosten more.
Basically, he stressed: "There are many mild cases. This is the reason, such as a cold." For Each of the disease is therefore not a big Problem, if he does not belong to any risk group.
The duration of the pandemic/epidemic
How long will it take until the Corona epidemic is over in Germany? Said this question of the virologist last week that nearly 70 percent of the population would have to infect, so the disease can be stopped. As a result, he got a lot of indignant reactions, said Drosten now. And began straight away to explain how he came to the number. “This is not a Menacing,” says Drosten. “This is something Bad, quite Natural, nothing at all, if extending over a longer period of time.”
Drosten provided the corresponding calculation example. You go currently assume that a Diseased in an average of three other people to infect. “So in the first week, the second week three, in the third week of the nine.” Now the question is: was going to happen, “What must stop?” It must be the goal to push this ratio below one. Then the disease would continue to spread. And the passing, if at least two out of three people are immune to infection, so already have had the disease. “And two of the three are 67 percent, “says Drosten.
Read: Particularly affected district After insanity days the epicenter of Heinsberg returns to the Corona-back to normality
Infected are really immune against Coronavirus?
However, Corona can be Infected really immune to the disease? RKI-chief Lothar Wieler: "Patients have neutralizing Antikörper", which made you immune. "How long the immunity lasts, we can of course answer afterwards." Drosten supplements that from Asia, with Multiple infections reported had been. He had looked at the cases and could not confirm it.
"Sometimes people go to the hospital, and in the case of a severe course in the following week, again to the hospital. Maybe even in a different. And then you are tested once positive and the second Time again." But it is the same infection. "This disease leads to haben" misunderstandings;, so Drosten.
Spahn will start "reinforced Kommunikationsoffensive"
Drostens designs are part of a "reinforced Kommunikationsoffensive", so the Federal Minister of health, Jens Spahn. The Coronavirus do many people fear and worry, says Spahn.
He can also see that the Hotlines were partially overheated. He evaluates the "high need for information of the Menschen" as "good Zeichen" and want to " by using the expert and their factual information;Uncertainties abbauen".
Important telephone numbers at Covid-19-suspicion
The Federal government recommends that: In the case of Coronavirus-symptoms, is it call better, instead of sitting in the waiting room.
- 116 117: A Doctor’s On-Call Service
- 115: Unitary Authorities Number
- 0800 011 77 22: Independent Patient Counselling Germany
- 030 346 465 100: citizens telephone of the Federal Ministry of health
All the important messages to the Coronavirus in FOCUS Online Newsletter. Subscribe now.
Who is in front of the Coronavirus, especially but also others, in Germany, according to expert opinion, significantly more likely infections of the respiratory tract, to protect, should adhere to General hygiene rules. These are all respiratory infections the same.
- Wash hands frequently with soap and water. Anti-microbial additives are usually not necessary. Also, the temperature of the water plays no role.
- A Minimum Of 20 Seconds Wash Hands.
- After Washing the hands thoroughly dry.
- Keep distance to peoplethat sneeze or cough and even disposable handkerchiefs use. After the coughing, Sneezing and blowing your Nose you should wash, also, as soon as possible the hands.
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