Corona-pandemic: experts recommend that you contact the lock partly
For weeks, people wonder how long the Corona could last crisis. According to experts from Germany, could Germany be in the dissemination of this new pathogen soon a turning point will be reached. The researchers recommend that you contact the lock partially and differently in different regions cancel.
After the long weeks of frustrating news about Coronavirus infections in Germany, there is now the first pleasant Surprises. The turning point of the Corona-crisis could slowly come into view.
The height of the pandemic could reach the end of April, culminating
According to a communication from the Johannes Gutenberg-University (JGU) Mainz could be achieved in the spread of the Coronavirus caused disease COVID-19 in Germany, a turning point:
The existing measures for the reduction, would maintain social contacts after the Easter holidays, and the population continue to hold as before, with it would go the number of new krankten according to the professionals and the pandemic in this country already at the end of April will reach a peak.
Then, almost 60,000 people in Germany were ill at the same time to COVID-19 and the total number of reported as infected would not be expected to exceed 200,000.
To these results an interdisciplinary Team of scientists from the University of Mainz and the University of Hamburg by the application of a popular statistical model, the so-called Gompertz curve, on the up to 7. April Figures published by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) to the COVID-19-diseases in Germany came.
The health system could reach its limits
“The curve bends more upwards, but downwards, because the number of new cases has decreased,” explains Prof. Dr. Klaus forests, economist at the University of Mainz and a senior scientist in the modeling.
The reduction measures were to be repealed social contacts after the Easter holidays completely, then the Numbers of new infections are among, as well as the Sufferers would rise with a few days delay and the health system are expected in may to its limits.
“A complete Repeal of the existing contact block is not recommended,” said woods.
Step-by-step of the existing measures to Repeal
The scientists do not speak, however, for a complete of the contact of Retained locks: “The economic and social costs would be too high, too many businesses would have to close,” says woods.
The expert recommends a step-by-step and regional differences in the Repeal of the existing measures: “For example, you could first only in some regions, Restaurants re-open, or you could open in some regions, the schools initially only for students from the ninth class, and in other regions, for students from the fifth grade.”
According to the experts, one could detect through the comparison of the developments of the Numbers of the COVID-19-diseases in the different regions after a few weeks, what effect the different approaches would have on the spread of the disease and, where appropriate, make adjustments.
“Would you introduce such differences at the level of the Federal States, we could use our Federal System to learn from each other,” says woods. (ad)